S&P Global delivered a record-breaking third quarter in 2025, with revenue increasing 9% year-over-year to $3.8 billion (implied by growth rates) and adjusted diluted EPS surging 22%. The company achieved significant margin expansion, with the adjusted operating margin reaching 52.1% (up 330 basis points), driven by strong performance across Ratings (+12% revenue) and Indices (+11% revenue), alongside an acceleration in Market Intelligence's organic growth to 8%. Strategic highlights include the planned acquisition of With Intelligence to bolster private markets data, the divestiture of EDM and thinkFolio to streamline the portfolio, and continued AI innovation leveraging the Kensho platform. Capital allocation remains robust, with the announcement of an additional $2.5 billion share repurchase program and an expected return of approximately 85% of 2025 adjusted free cash flow to shareholders. Management raised full-year guidance, projecting revenue growth of 7-8% and adjusted EPS between $17.60 and $17.85, reflecting confidence in sustained operational excellence and market resilience.
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 9% | +9% |
| Adjusted EPS Growth (YoY) | 22% | +22% |
| Adjusted Operating Margin | 52.1% | +330 bps |
| Market Intelligence Organic Growth | 8% | Accelerated |
| Ratings Revenue Growth | 12% | +12% |
| S&P DJI Revenue Growth | 11% | +11% |
| Share Repurchase Authorization | $2.5 Billion | New Authorization |
| Free Cash Flow Return | ~85% | Of 2025 Adj. FCF |
S&P Global is making a decisive move into the private markets space through the planned acquisition of With Intelligence. This acquisition addresses a critical gap in the market for transparent, contributory data on private equity, private credit, and infrastructure. By combining With Intelligence's unique data sets with S&P's existing massive data estate and partnerships with Cambridge Associates and Mercer, the company is positioning itself as the undisputed leader in private markets intelligence. This strategic pivot is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the Market Intelligence division and diversify revenue streams away from public market volatility.
The company is aggressively leveraging its decade-long investment in AI (over $1 billion since 2018) to drive both top-line growth and operational efficiency. New product launches like Document Intelligence 2.0 and AI-powered search in iLEVEL are monetizing the Kensho technology stack. Management emphasized that these innovations are not just R&D expenses but are already contributing to margin expansion by automating workflows and reducing licensing costs. The collaboration with hyperscalers like Microsoft and IBM serves as a new distribution channel, embedding S&P data into the workflows of non-traditional customers.
Portfolio optimization within the Market Intelligence division is 'substantially complete' following the divestiture of Enterprise Data Management and thinkFolio. This streamlining effort allows management to focus resources on high-margin, proprietary, strategic assets. The divestitures, while small in revenue impact, signal a disciplined capital allocation approach, ensuring that the portfolio remains aligned with the company's core competencies in data, analytics, and benchmarks. This focus is contributing to the accelerated organic growth and margin expansion seen in the quarter.
S&P Global is reinforcing its 'moat' by emphasizing that over 95% of its revenue is derived from proprietary or highly curated data sources, rather than public information. This distinction is crucial in an era of AI commoditization, as management argues that their unique data sets and embedded workflows cannot be easily replicated by competitors or AI models alone. This strategic narrative aims to reassure investors of the company's defensibility and pricing power even as technology evolves.
The Commodity Insights division faces persistent headwinds from geopolitical sanctions and energy market volatility. Management specifically noted that new sanctions introduced since February will create a revenue headwind of approximately $6 million in 2025 and $20 million in 2026. Additionally, the Upstream Data & Insights business continues to decline (-2% YoY) due to customer consolidation and lower oil prices, requiring active intervention to stabilize.
While the Mobility division showed resilience, the Manufacturing segment remains under pressure from tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, declining 3% year-over-year. Management noted that these headwinds are likely to persist, creating a drag on the division's overall growth potential. Furthermore, the upcoming spin-off of Mobility introduces execution risk and potential distraction for management during the transition period.
The Ratings business outlook is heavily dependent on specific market conditions, particularly the 'maturity wall' in 2026. Management acknowledged a pull-forward of refinancing activity from 2026 into 2025, which raises questions about the sustainability of current issuance volumes into next year. If the maturity wall is managed earlier than expected, 2026 growth in Ratings could face a tougher comparison.
Despite the enthusiasm for AI partnerships, management acknowledged that revenue models with hyperscalers are still evolving and currently rely on existing customer licenses. The immediate revenue contribution from these partnerships appears limited, and there is a risk that S&P Global's data could be commoditized if not managed carefully within these third-party ecosystems.
Overall: Management exhibited a highly confident and enthusiastic demeanor throughout the call, frequently using superlatives like 'record' and 'strongest quarter we've ever had.' There was a distinct sense of pride in the execution of the strategic turnaround in Market Intelligence and the successful integration of AI technologies. The tone shifted from celebratory during prepared remarks to highly assured and detailed during the Q&A, where they defended their data moat against competitive threats.
Confidence: HIGH - Management displayed high conviction, evidenced by the raising of full-year guidance across all key metrics (revenue, margins, EPS) and the authorization of a significant new share repurchase program. They provided specific, data-driven responses to analyst questions regarding AI monetization and private markets strategy, avoiding vague generalizations.
7% to 8% (Raised)
50% to 50.5% (Raised)
$17.60 to $17.85 (Raised, +12-14% YoY)
Mid- to high-teens growth
5.5% to 6.5% (Raised to upper end)
Raised towards upper end of prior range
Hedging & Uncertainty: Management used minimal hedging when discussing past performance, utilizing definitive terms like 'record,' 'accelerating,' and 'strongest.' However, when discussing future impacts, particularly regarding AI monetization and the With Intelligence acquisition, they employed temporal hedges such as 'expect to close,' 'over time,' and 'in the years to come.' For example, Eric Aboaf stated, 'We expect the reduction in share count to... be slightly accretive to EPS' in 2026, showing a probabilistic outlook. They also used conditional language regarding market assumptions, stating guidance 'assumes that U.S. equity markets are flat from September 30.'
"On every headline financial metric, it was the strongest quarter we've ever had." - Martina Cheung, CEO
"Over 95% of the revenue is derived from proprietary sources, and the value that we generate for our customers really can't be replicated by any other single company." - Eric Aboaf, CFO
"We are confident we'll be able to continue driving both technological innovation and margin expansion in the years to come." - Martina Cheung, CEO
"The third quarter demonstrated the power of our business as we delivered accelerating revenue growth and very significant margin expansion." - Eric Aboaf, CFO
"We are raising our enterprise outlook for total revenue growth and margins." - Eric Aboaf, CFO
"We're excited to tell you more about our long-term vision for private markets at Investor Day." - Martina Cheung, CEO
Analyst Sentiment: Analysts were highly inquisitive and generally positive, focusing heavily on the sustainability of the Market Intelligence turnaround and the mechanics of the With Intelligence acquisition. There was a clear interest in understanding how AI would specifically drive margins versus revenue, and how the company defends its data moat against AI disruption.
Management Responses: Management responses were detailed and data-rich, often citing specific metrics (e.g., ACV growth of 6.5-7%) to back up their claims. They were defensive yet articulate when questioned about the 'proprietary' nature of their data versus public information. They effectively used the Q&A to elaborate on their AI strategy, moving beyond buzzwords to explain specific use cases like 'vibe coding' and workflow consolidation.
Discussion on the drivers behind Market Intelligence's 8% organic growth, with management attributing it to sales transformation, product innovation (AI), and competitive wins.
Deep dive into the Ratings outlook, specifically the 'maturity wall' dynamics and the pull-forward of issuance from 2026 to 2025.
Analysis of the AI investment strategy, with management clarifying that past investments are now yielding efficiency gains (cost savings) and new product revenue.
Inquiry into the With Intelligence acquisition, comparing it to competitors like Preqin and its fit within the private markets strategy.
Questions regarding the impact of sanctions on Commodity Insights and the outlook for the Upstream business.
S&P Global reported an exceptional quarter characterized by broad-based strength and accelerating growth, particularly in the core Market Intelligence division. The company is successfully leveraging its massive data assets, using AI to drive both margin expansion and new product adoption. The strategic pivot to private markets via the With Intelligence acquisition, combined with an aggressive capital return program ($2.5B buyback), signals a management team operating with high confidence. While headwinds in Commodity Insights and Mobility persist, the raised guidance and robust operational performance in Ratings and Indices underscore the resilience of the business model. The company's emphasis on proprietary data provides a defensible moat against AI disruption, making SPGI a compelling growth at a reasonable price story.
Management reported robust activity in billed issuance (+13% YoY) and strong equity inflows, indicating a resilient financing environment despite earlier volatility. The 'maturity wall' is driving refinancing activity, particularly in high-yield and structured finance.
S&P Global is betting heavily on the growth of private markets (PE, Private Credit). The acquisition of With Intelligence and partnerships with Cambridge/Mercer suggest institutional flows are increasingly moving toward private assets, creating a data gap that S&P aims to fill.
The Commodity Insights division faces a challenging macro environment characterized by sanctions (estimated $20M impact in 2026) and lower oil prices impacting upstream spending. However, demand for Energy Transition data remains a bright spot.
OEM and manufacturing end markets are experiencing weakness due to tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, impacting consulting and discretionary spending in the Mobility division's Manufacturing segment.