Robinhood Markets, Inc. delivered a record-breaking 2025 with full-year revenue surging 52% year-over-year to $4.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA jumping 76% to $2.5 billion, representing a 56% margin. The company achieved strong double-digit market share gains across equities, options, and crypto, while total platform assets grew nearly 70% to $324 billion driven by a record $68 billion in net deposits. Management highlighted significant diversification with 11 businesses generating over $100 million in annualized revenue, including the rapid scaling of prediction markets ($12B+ contracts) and the Gold Card (600k subscribers). Looking ahead to 2026, Robinhood plans to accelerate product velocity with an 18% increase in operating expenses, targeting over 20% net deposit growth and more than doubling Gold Card users to over one million.
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 Revenue | $1.3 billion | +27% YoY |
| FY 2025 Revenue | $4.5 billion | +52% YoY |
| FY 2025 Adj. EBITDA | $2.5 billion | +76% YoY |
| FY 2025 EPS | $2.05 | Record High |
| Net Deposits (FY 2025) | $68 billion | +35% |
| Gold Subscribers | 4.2 million | +60% YoY |
| Total Platform Assets | $324 billion | ~70% YoY |
| Prediction Market Volume (2025) | $12 billion | New High |
Prediction markets have emerged as a critical growth engine, described as the 'fastest growing business in our history' with over $12 billion in contracts traded in 2025 and $4 billion already in early 2026. Management emphasized a shift beyond sports into non-sports categories like politics (e.g., government shutdown contracts) and economics, aiming to capture a 'prediction market super cycle.' The strategic launch of Rothera, a joint venture exchange, will allow Robinhood to control the full product stack and improve unit economics, potentially capturing more value as the platform scales.
Robinhood is aggressively expanding its 'wallet share' strategy to become a primary financial account, evidenced by the success of the Gold Card which grew 5x to 600,000 users with $10 billion in annualized spend. The rollout of Robinhood Banking has achieved strong product-market fit with over 25,000 funded customers and a remarkable 50% attach rate for direct deposits. Management plans to more than double Gold Card users to over one million by year-end, leveraging these products to deepen customer relationships and increase asset retention.
The company is leveraging AI to drive significant operational efficiency, reporting that over 75% of customer support cases are now resolved by AI, including complex ones previously requiring licensed professionals. This internal AI integration contributed to an estimated nine-figure savings in 2025 alone, allowing the company to maintain high incremental EBITDA margins (above 70%) while investing heavily in new products. The upcoming launch of 'Cortex' for both retail and Legend platforms aims to transform the trading experience through AI assistance.
International expansion and tokenization represent major long-term growth vectors, with Robinhood now serving 750,000 customers outside the US and scaling Bitstamp volumes 2x since acquisition. The company is positioning itself as a leader in the tokenization of real-world assets, offering 2,000 stock tokens in Europe and planning to launch 'Robinhood Chain,' a layer-2 blockchain optimized for trading these assets. This strategy aims to merge traditional finance with crypto rails to offer 24/7 trading and self-custody, differentiating its global offering.
Despite strong fundamental performance, a shareholder highlighted a significant disconnect between business results and stock price, noting a 'more than 40% drop in Hood's share price.' While management deflected by focusing on 'inputs' and long-term business performance, the sustained valuation compression suggests investor skepticism regarding the sustainability of growth rates or concerns over broader market volatility impacting trading volumes.
Management acknowledged regulatory hurdles that could limit the expansion of high-margin products, specifically noting that listing prediction markets on company fundamentals or KPIs 'falls into securities-based swaps' and requires 'regulatory relief.' This creates a ceiling on the immediate diversification of the prediction markets revenue stream and exposes the company to policy risk that could delay product rollouts.
The prediction markets business faces increasing competitive pressure, with management noting 'new competitors in this space that are advertising quite aggressively.' While Robinhood benefits from a massive existing user base (27 million), the need to invest in marketing and promotions to defend market share in this nascent category could pressure margins, particularly as the mix of sports contracts fluctuates seasonally.
While crypto revenue diversification is improving (down to 18% of total revenue), the business remains susceptible to 'crypto downturns' and seasonal trading patterns. Management's reliance on 'event-driven' trading (e.g., Olympics, World Cup, elections) introduces volatility into quarterly transaction-based revenues, requiring consistent execution to offset periods of lower market activity.
Overall: Management exhibited a highly confident and energetic demeanor throughout the call, frequently using superlatives like 'incredible' and 'relentless' to describe product velocity and operational efficiency. There was a distinct lack of defensiveness regarding the stock price decline, with leadership pivoting quickly to fundamental inputs and long-term value creation.
Confidence: HIGH - Management provided specific metrics across all business units, detailed a clear roadmap for 2026, and demonstrated conviction in their profitability targets despite increased investment.
$2.6 billion - $2.725 billion
20%+
Well over 1 million
~18% YoY at midpoint
Hedging & Uncertainty: Management generally avoided heavy hedging regarding past performance, using definitive language like 'record year' and 'incredible product velocity.' However, forward-looking statements regarding new products like private markets and specific prediction market contracts utilized qualifiers such as 'if we play our cards right,' 'potential to,' and 'could be.' For instance, Vlad stated, 'I think private markets could become even bigger than prediction markets,' and regarding AI agents, 'it's a little bit early to proclaim... a certain chain... will become the way that AI agents communicate.' This suggests confidence in the direction but acknowledges execution and adoption risks.
Prediction markets. Fastest growing business in our history. - Vladimir Tenev, CEO
Our philosophy that the denominator matters. - Shiv Verma, CFO
We are by no means complacent. This is going to be an ambitious plan. - Vladimir Tenev, CEO
We are seeing increasing confidence that this is going to be a great tool for discovery and engagement. - Vladimir Tenev, CEO
We are a technology company at heart. About 85 to 90% of our costs are fixed, so this gives us a lot of flexibility. - Shiv Verma, CFO
I think private markets could become even bigger than prediction markets. - Vladimir Tenev, CEO
We are really focused on the inputs of our business. - Vladimir Tenev, CEO
Analyst Sentiment: Analysts expressed curiosity about the sustainability of new growth engines like prediction markets and the mechanics of international expansion, but generally reacted positively to the profitability metrics. There was notable skepticism regarding the stock price underperformance and the competitive landscape for prediction markets.
Management Responses: Management was direct and detailed, often providing granular metrics (e.g., specific attach rates for banking, volume breakdowns for prediction markets) to support their thesis. They deflected stock price concerns by focusing on fundamental 'inputs' and demonstrated deep technical knowledge when discussing AI and tokenization infrastructure.
Analysts probed deeply into the monetization and product roadmap for Prediction Markets, specifically the mix of sports vs. non-sports and the economic impact of the Rothera JV.
International strategy was a major focus, with questions on the prioritization of markets (EU vs. Asia) and the role of tokenization in driving growth outside the US.
There was significant interest in the application of AI, specifically how 'Cortex' will compete with other tools and the operational efficiency gains from AI integration.
Questions regarding the regulatory environment for 'Trump accounts' and private market access highlighted the political and compliance risks facing the platform.
Robinhood is executing at a high level, successfully transitioning from a pandemic-era trading phenomenon to a diversified financial ecosystem with 11 distinct revenue lines. The 52% revenue growth coupled with 76% EBITDA growth demonstrates the power of its fixed-cost leverage and product velocity. The expansion into high-margin areas like prediction markets (Rothera JV), banking (Gold Card), and international tokenization provides a multi-year growth runway that justifies a premium valuation. While the stock has faced volatility, the fundamental metrics—record net deposits, increasing wallet share, and market share gains across all asset classes—suggest the business is outperforming market sentiment. The disciplined capital allocation, including share buybacks and ROI-focused investment, further de-risks the bull case.
Management expressed optimism regarding the new administration's stance on financial markets, specifically highlighting the 'Trump accounts' initiative as a 'game-changer' that aligns with their mission to democratize finance.
Robinhood views the '$100 trillion plus generational wealth transfer' as a primary tailwind, positioning its 'super app' strategy to capture assets as younger investors consolidate their financial lives.
The company sees crypto evolving from a mere asset class to foundational technology for trading all assets, with tokenization enabling 24/7 trading and global interoperability.
Management acknowledged the impact of 'crypto downturns' and the end of football season on trading activity, though they are mitigating this through diversification into non-sports prediction markets and long-term investing products.