Gilead Sciences reported a strong finish to 2025, with full-year total product sales reaching $28.9 billion (up 1% year-over-year) and non-GAAP EPS of $8.15, beating the high end of guidance. Performance was driven by a 6% increase in HIV sales to $20.8 billion (10% excluding the $900 million Part D redesign headwind) and a 6% rise in liver disease sales to $3.2 billion, fueled by the rapid uptake of Libdelzi. The company successfully launched the HIV prevention therapy YES2GO, which achieved $150 million in sales and is projected to grow to approximately $800 million in 2026. Looking ahead, management raised 2026 guidance, forecasting total product sales of $29.6 to $30.0 billion and EPS of $8.45 to $8.85, underpinned by four potential new product launches, including Trodelvy in first-line triple-negative breast cancer and Anidocel in multiple myeloma.
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total Product Sales (2025) | $28.9 Billion | +1% YoY |
| Base Business Sales (2025) | $28.0 Billion | +4% YoY |
| HIV Sales (2025) | $20.8 Billion | +6% YoY |
| Non-GAAP EPS (2025) | $8.15 | Beat Guidance |
| YES2GO Sales (2025) | $150 Million | Launch Year |
| Trodelvy Sales (2025) | $1.4 Billion | +6% YoY |
| Cell Therapy Sales (2025) | $1.8 Billion | -7% YoY |
| Operating Margin (2025) | 45% | ~48% ex-items |
HIV Franchise Durability and Evolution: Gilead's HIV business remains the core profit engine, growing 6% (10% ex-headwinds) to $20.8 billion. Management emphasized the 'transformative' potential of YES2GO (lenacapavir), which reached 90% payer coverage in record time and is projected to hit $800 million in 2026. The pipeline remains robust with 'Viclen' (bictegravir/lenacapavir) expected to launch in late 2026, further solidifying their dominance in treatment and prevention.
Oncology Expansion via Trodelvy: The strategic shift in oncology is gaining traction, with Trodelvy sales growing 6% to $1.4 billion. The positive Phase 3 ASCENT-03 and ASCENT-04 data positions Trodelvy for a first-line launch in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in 2026, a market opportunity roughly double the current second-line indication. Management also highlighted potential expansion into endometrial and lung cancer, signaling a multi-indication strategy to drive long-term growth.
Cell Therapy Reset and Anidocel Potential: While current cell therapy revenues are declining (-7% in 2025, -10% expected in 2026) due to competitive headwinds, management is strategically pivoting to Anidocel (BCMA CAR-T). With a potential second-half 2026 launch for fourth-line multiple myeloma, Gilead aims to leverage its 'world-class manufacturing' (16-day turnaround) to capture share in a $3.5 billion market, offsetting the declines in Yescarta.
Capital Allocation and M&A Discipline: Management emphasized a 'disciplined' approach to capital deployment, returning 63% of free cash flow to shareholders while maintaining an active but 'patient' M&A strategy. With no major patent cliffs until 2036 and a strong internal pipeline, Gilead feels no 'urgency' to do deals but remains open to 'turbocharging' growth with late-stage assets, signaling financial stability and strategic patience.
Cell Therapy Revenue Contraction: The cell therapy business (Kite) faces persistent headwinds, with sales down 7% in 2025 and guidance calling for a further 10% decline in 2026. Management cited 'in and out of class competition' and clinical trial cannibalization as ongoing pressures. While Anidocel offers future hope, the near-term revenue drag from the maturing Yescarta franchise remains a significant headwind to overall growth.
Policy and Pricing Headwinds: External policy factors continue to weigh on performance. The Medicare Part D redesign caused a $900 million headwind in 2025, and new headwinds are emerging in 2026, including a drug pricing agreement with the US government (impacting Genvoya/Odefsi) and potential ACA changes. Management estimates these will create a ~2% drag on HIV growth in 2026, highlighting the company's exposure to regulatory pricing pressures.
Veklury (COVID-19) Decline: Revenue from Veklury continues to plummet, falling 49% to $911 million in 2025, with expectations of a further decline to $600 million in 2026. While this was anticipated, the rapid drop-off represents a significant loss of high-margin revenue that the base business must now offset through growth in other areas.
Overall: Management exhibited a high degree of confidence and satisfaction with the company's execution, frequently using superlatives like 'remarkable,' 'exceptional,' and 'strong' to describe the year's performance. They were direct in their financial guidance and strategic priorities, though they acknowledged specific headwinds like Part D redesign and cell therapy competition with measured language.
Confidence: HIGH - Management provided specific 2026 guidance ranges, detailed launch timelines, and quantified market share gains (e.g., Biktarvy >52%). Their willingness to project specific revenue figures for new products like YES2GO ($800M) indicates strong conviction in their commercial execution capabilities.
$29.6 - $30.0 Billion
$8.45 - $8.85
~6% (8% ex-headwinds)
~$800 Million
Decline ~10%
Hedging & Uncertainty: Management generally used direct language regarding past performance but employed specific hedges for future outlooks, particularly around pipeline assets and policy impacts. Phrases like 'we expect,' 'potential,' 'approximately,' and 'assuming' were frequent. For example, regarding Anidocel, Cindy Perettie stated, 'We expect over time to become the market leader,' using 'over time' to soften the immediate expectation. Johanna Mercier hedged on YES2GO pricing, stating, 'We obviously don't discuss gross to net,' when pressed on net price decay, deflecting the financial specifics.
Closing out a remarkable year for the company with clinical, commercial, and operational achievements that set the stage for a very promising 2026. - Daniel O'Day, Chairman and CEO
Absent these headwinds, our HIV business is expected to grow 8% in 2026, highlighting the underlying strength of our HIV business. - Johanna Mercier, Chief Commercial and Corporate Affairs Officer
We may not have the urgency of other companies in this sector we're gonna be disciplined around that. - Daniel O'Day, Chairman and CEO
We expect full-year 2026 YES2GO revenue of approximately $800 million... highlighting that YES2GO is well on its way to achieving blockbuster status. - Johanna Mercier, Chief Commercial and Corporate Affairs Officer
We expect because the launch is the second half of the year... modest contribution in 2026. - Cindy Perettie, Executive Vice President of Kite
Analyst Sentiment: Analysts were generally inquisitive but skeptical regarding the sustainability of YES2GO growth and pricing, as well as the competitive landscape for Anidocel. Questions from JPM and Bernstein pressed for specific assumptions behind the $800M YES2GO guidance, suggesting some doubt about the ramp speed.
Management Responses: Management was defensive but prepared on pricing questions, refusing to detail gross-to-net but emphasizing 'value proposition.' They were confident on Anidocel, citing manufacturing superiority (16-day turnaround) as a key differentiator against competitors. They maintained a disciplined stance on M&A, rejecting the notion of 'urgency.'
YES2GO Uptake & Pricing: Analysts questioned the math behind the $800M guidance for YES2GO, asking about persistency rates and potential price erosion. Management insisted on 'strong momentum' and 'acceleration of growth,' citing 90% coverage and a new DTC campaign.
Anidocel Competition: Questions focused on how Anidocel would compete against entrenched players like J&J in the 4th line myeloma market. Management highlighted 'best-in-disease' efficacy and a 16-day manufacturing turnaround as key competitive moats.
M&A Strategy: Analysts asked about 'voids' in the portfolio and the lack of large-scale M&A recently. CEO Dan O'Day stated there is 'no real BD urgency' given the strong internal pipeline and patent protection until 2036, but affirmed a disciplined approach to deals.
Gilead Sciences is successfully executing a multi-year turnaround strategy, transitioning from a reliance on HCV and COVID products to a diversified growth platform anchored by HIV and Oncology. The core HIV franchise is proving remarkably resilient, growing double-digits ex-headwinds, with the YES2GO launch exceeding initial expectations and providing a long-term growth tailwind. The oncology segment is reaching an inflection point; Trodelvy's expansion into first-line TNBC and potential new indications (endometrial, lung) significantly de-risks the revenue profile. While cell therapy headwinds and policy pricing pressures present near-term friction, the 2026 guidance raise and the 'no major LOEs until 2036' visibility provide a stable floor for the stock. With a robust pipeline of 5 Phase 3 readouts and 5 potential launches in 2026, Gilead offers a compelling combination of value, yield, and growth re-acceleration.
Management highlighted continued headwinds from the Medicare Part D redesign ($900M impact in 2025) and new risks from the 'drug pricing agreement with the US government' and ACA changes, which are expected to create a ~2% headwind on HIV growth in 2026.