Cleveland-Cliffs reported a challenging 2025 characterized by 'systematic destruction' from steel imports and weak automotive demand, resulting in low asset utilization. However, management executed decisive strategic shifts, including terminating an onerous slab supply contract with ArcelorMittal and idling underperforming assets. For Q4 2025, shipments were 3.8 million tons with price realization of $993 per net ton. Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is significantly brighter: management forecasts shipments of 16.5 to 17 million tons, a $60 per ton increase in price realization, and a further $10 per ton reduction in unit costs. A major driver is the expiration of the slab contract, which is expected to generate approximately $500 million in EBITDA uplift. Additionally, the company is advancing a strategic partnership with POSCO and seeing benefits from reshoring trends and Section 232 tariffs.
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 Shipments | 3.8 million tons | N/A |
| Q4 2025 Price Realization | $993 per net ton | -$40 per net ton (QoQ) |
| 2026 Shipments Guidance | 16.5 - 17.0 million tons | Increase vs 2025 |
| 2026 Price Realization Change | +$60 per ton | Increase vs 2025 |
| 2026 Unit Cost Change | -$10 per ton | Decrease vs 2025 |
| 2025 CapEx | $561 million | Record Low |
| 2026 CapEx Guidance | ~$700 million | Increase vs 2025 |
| Total Liquidity | $3.3 billion | N/A |
| TRIR (Safety) | 0.8 | 43% improvement since 2021 |
| Slab Contract EBITDA Benefit | ~$500 million | New in 2026 |
Management emphasized the termination of the index-based slab supply contract with ArcelorMittal as a pivotal value-creation event. The contract became 'very onerous' when Brazilian slab prices disconnected from U.S. steel prices. By replacing these low-margin slab sales with higher-margin flat-rolled products, Cliffs expects an EBITDA boost of approximately $500 million and a revenue increase of roughly $700 million at current market prices. This shift allows the company to utilize its melting capacity for more profitable finished goods, significantly enhancing margins without additional capital expenditure.
The strategic partnership with POSCO was highlighted as the 'number one strategic priority,' with a definitive agreement targeted for 2026. This collaboration allows POSCO to meet U.S. 'melted and poured' requirements, which are increasingly strict. Lourenco Goncalves noted that POSCO approached Cliffs, indicating Cliffs' strong position as the only viable partner for foreign steelmakers needing U.S. production capacity. The deal is expected to be 'highly accretive' and strengthens Cliffs' technological and commercial footprint.
Cliffs is actively capitalizing on the weakness of the aluminum supply chain, which has suffered 'severe disruption with a succession of fire events.' The company has successfully developed Cliffs Steel that can replace aluminum in exposed automotive components using existing aluminum forming equipment. This lowers the barrier to adoption for OEMs and expands Cliffs' addressable market. Management is already securing orders on a 'production scale basis' for the best-selling vehicles in the U.S.
The acquisition of Stelco is beginning to yield strategic benefits following a difficult 2025 where Canadian pricing decoupled from U.S. pricing due to import dumping. Management successfully lobbied the Canadian government to impose restrictions, which has 'stopped the bleeding.' With Stelco's output redirected 100% to the Canadian market and new trade barriers in place, Stelco is expected to become a 'significant contributor' to EBITDA in 2026, transforming from a 'low-price exporter' into a profitable domestic entity.
Management highlighted a powerful macro backdrop driven by 'policy-driven reshoring' and Section 232 tariffs of 50%. These policies are driving demand for domestically produced steel and reducing import competition. Cliffs is positioned to benefit immediately as it has 'installed capacity available right now' to absorb reshored automotive volume, unlike competitors who are building new plants that won't be ready until 2028-2030.
Despite the optimistic tone, CFO Celso Goncalves admitted that 'our leverage remains too elevated for my liking.' While the company has extended maturities to 2029 and maintains $3.3 billion in liquidity, the high debt load remains a financial risk, particularly if the anticipated 2026 recovery faces delays. The reliance on asset sales (up to $425 million) to pay down debt introduces execution risk.
The POSCO partnership, while promising, is currently governed by a non-binding MOU. Management stated they will 'only move forward on ratifying our partnership if the collaboration is accretive to Cliffs' shareholders.' There is a risk that the deal could fail to close or be delayed, which would leave the company without the anticipated strategic benefits and force them to revert to selling larger assets (like Toledo HBI) that are currently on hold.
While Canadian pricing is improving, management noted that the government's restrictions on imports were 'still insufficient and limited in scope.' This suggests the Canadian market recovery could be fragile or incomplete, potentially limiting Stelco's upside if trade enforcement remains lax or if global steel dumping into Canada persists.
Management guided for a temporary increase in costs in Q1 2026 due to a spike in utilities prices and a change in product mix, expected to normalize in Q2. Additionally, while full-year unit costs are expected to decline, the company faces headwinds from higher scrap and electricity prices, which impact the broader industry and could compress margins if pricing power weakens.
Overall: Management displayed a highly confident and aggressive demeanor, particularly CEO Lourenco Goncalves, who was emphatic about the company's positioning and the inevitability of a market recovery. The tone shifted from defensive regarding 2025's struggles to offensive regarding 2026's potential, with specific emphasis on the 'massive gain' from operational improvements and market shifts.
Confidence: HIGH - Management provided specific numbers for 2026 guidance ($500M EBITDA benefit from slab contract, $60/ton price increase) and used definitive language regarding market recovery ('inevitable', 'will be absorbed'). The CFO explicitly stated he feels 'much better about where we are today versus where we were twelve months ago.'
16.5 million to 17 million tons
Increase of approximately $60 per ton from 2025
Expected to decline by $10 per ton
Projected to be around $700 million
Return to 4 million ton level
Up around $20/ton temporarily, normalizing in Q2
Hedging & Uncertainty: Management used relatively little hedging regarding the 2026 outlook, employing strong definitive verbs such as 'will,' 'inevitable,' and 'must.' However, CFO Celso Goncalves used more probabilistic language typical of financial guidance, including phrases like 'expect to return,' 'should improve,' and 'likely see.' Lourenco Goncalves was notably direct, using phrases like 'I took like a big boy' to describe past losses, signaling confidence and closure on previous issues. The primary hedge used was regarding the POSCO deal, where he emphasized it must be 'accretive' to proceed, setting a condition for the strategic signal.
The factors that weighed on our performance in 2025 were well known and addressable. - Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and CEO
The return to pre-COVID levels of vehicle production in the United States is inevitable. - Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and CEO
We are the only possibility for any company that's outside of the border of the United States to be inside the border of the United States. - Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and CEO
From a pure dollar perspective, our leverage remains too elevated for my liking. - Celso Goncalves, CFO
I ate, I took like a big boy, and now they don't have their hours left anymore. - Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and CEO
We have the installed capacity available right now. Cliffs does not need to build new plants. - Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and CEO
Analyst Sentiment: Analysts were highly engaged, focusing heavily on quantifying the financial impact of the slab contract termination and the mechanics of the POSCO partnership. Questions were direct and specific, seeking clarity on EBITDA uplift and capacity utilization.
Management Responses: Management responses were detailed and open, providing specific numbers (e.g., $500M EBITDA benefit) rather than vague assurances. Lourenco Goncalves dominated the call, often correcting premises or expanding on strategic context, while Celso Goncalves provided the granular financial details.
Detailed quantification of the ArcelorMittal slab contract termination impact ($500M EBITDA, $700M revenue).
Clarification of capital expenditure plans for 2026 through 2028, specifically the Burns Harbor reline.
The strategic rationale and progress of the POSCO partnership, including due diligence status.
The mechanics and potential volume of aluminum replacement in automotive applications.
Stelco's historical drag on earnings and the potential for recovery in 2026 following Canadian trade actions.
Asset sale proceeds and the hold status of larger asset sales pending the POSCO deal.
Cleveland-Cliffs presents a compelling turnaround story entering 2026, having cleared the major hurdles of 2025. The termination of the onerous slab contract alone provides a ~$500 million EBITDA tailwind, while simultaneously improving the competitive landscape by removing supply from a rival. The company is uniquely leveraged to the reshoring of automotive manufacturing and Section 232 tariffs, possessing immediate idle capacity that competitors cannot match until 2028. The potential POSCO partnership offers further upside through accretive strategic cooperation. While leverage remains a concern, the strong free cash flow generation expected in 2026, combined with declining unit costs and rising steel prices, creates a clear path to deleveraging and significant shareholder value creation.
Section 232 tariffs of 50% and 'melted and poured' requirements are driving demand for domestic steel and reducing import competition, directly benefiting Cliffs' pricing power.
Policy-driven reshoring is expected to return U.S. vehicle production to pre-COVID levels. Cliffs has secured multi-year contracts with major OEMs to capture this volume.
Scrap and electricity prices are rising, which hurts mini-mills more than Cliffs due to Cliffs' self-generated power and lower scrap usage, providing a relative cost advantage.
New Canadian government restrictions on imported steel have stopped the 'dumping' that decoupled pricing from the U.S., allowing Stelco to contribute positively.