CDE

Q1 2026

Date: 2026-05-07Rank: #73Forward Promise: bullish

Coeur Mining reported a record first quarter of 2026, driven by the successful closing of the New Gold transaction which contributed 11 days of initial production from the New Afton and Rainy River mines. The company generated record quarterly revenue of $856 million and record EBITDA of $475 million, increasing nearly fourfold year-over-year. Despite over $200 million in quarter-specific and one-time items, Coeur generated $267 million in free cash flow, boosting its cash position to $843 million. Management reaffirmed its transformative 2026 guidance, expecting approximately 750,000 ounces of gold, over 20 million ounces of silver, and nearly 60 million pounds of copper, underpinned by a new $750 million buyback program and an inaugural semiannual dividend of $0.02 per share.

Bullishness Score

87.14

μ Mean

92.75

σ Uncertainty

1.87

Forward Promise

8.3

Management Tone

Management exhibited exceptionally high confidence throughout the call, characterized by a triumphant tone regarding the New Gold integration and the company's transformed scale. The transition from prepared remarks to Q&A was seamless, with executives eagerly leaning into detailed operational and accounting questions without hesitation. The demeanor was assertive and celebratory, frequently praising the team's execution and framing current challenges as 'champagne problems.'

Confidence: HIGH — Executives provided granular data, reaffirmed full-year guidance without hedging, and directly addressed complex accounting and operational questions with specificity and enthusiasm.

Strategic Signals

Coeur Mining has successfully transformed into a dominant North American precious metals producer following the SilverCrest and New Gold acquisitions. The portfolio now includes seven operations, with 100% of 2026 production sourced entirely from North America. Management emphasized that approximately 70% of revenues will originate from the U.S. and Canada, significantly de-risking the geopolitical profile and appealing to ESG-conscious institutional investors. This geographic positioning is a core pillar of their new identity as the 'go-to North American-only precious metals company.'

The integration of New Gold assets is proceeding exceptionally well, with management highlighting strong cultural alignment and immediate safety accolades for the acquired mines. New Afton and Rainy River received the John T. Ryan regional safety trophy, validating operational standards. The swift completion of the obligor exchange for the 2032 bonds—novating over 96% into Coeur notes—was executed to unlock complete financial flexibility for capital returns, showcasing proactive and highly effective treasury management.

Capital allocation is shifting aggressively toward shareholder returns following a period of transformative M&A. The Board authorized a $750 million buyback program and a sustainable $0.02 per share semiannual dividend. With blackouts lifting, management explicitly stated their intent to actively execute buybacks starting in the second quarter. The dividend is structured to be sustainable even under extreme low-case pricing scenarios, indicating a permanent shift to a mature, cash-generating business model.

Operational execution at legacy assets remains strong, particularly the successful recovery at Wharf following a fire last November. The team brought the rebuilt crushing circuit online faster than planned, positioning Wharf to deliver consistent production throughout the remainder of the year. Similarly, Rochester is performing ahead of plan, with the Phase 2 Stage 6 leach pad progressing well, setting up a strong ramp in production and cash flows in the coming quarters.

Management is actively advancing the Silvertip project in British Columbia as a major organic growth catalyst. Higher silver prices, Canada’s support for critical minerals, and internal capabilities are aligning to create a strategic window of opportunity. Coeur is undertaking the largest exploration program in its history this year, with a specific focus on Silvertip and the K-Zone, which could significantly extend the company's high-margin silver production profile in the near future.

Key Metrics

Q1 Revenue$856 millionRecord quarterly revenue

Q1 EBITDA$475 millionNearly fourfold YoY increase

Q1 Free Cash Flow$267 millionSecond-highest in company history

Cash and Equivalents$843 millionNearly 11-fold increase over the past year

2026 Expected Gold Production~750,000 ounces80% increase compared to last year

2026 Expected Silver Production20+ million ounces13% increase over last year

2026 Expected Copper ProductionNearly 60 million poundsNew metal mix introduction

New Afton C-Zone Throughput Target16,000 tons per dayTargeted by end of Q2 2026

Guidance

2026 Production: Approximately 750,000 ounces of gold, over 20 million ounces of silver, and nearly 60 million pounds of copper.

2026 Financials: Expected to generate more than $3 billion of EBITDA and $2 billion of free cash flow using budget prices.

Capital Returns: $750 million share repurchase program authorized; inaugural dividend of $0.02 per share semiannually.

Diesel Cost Assumption: 2026 cost guidance assumes a diesel price of $3.19 per gallon.

Bottom Line

Price Target: N/A

Coeur Mining has successfully transformed into a premier North American precious metals producer, and the Q1 2026 earnings call confirms the integration of New Gold is tracking flawlessly. The investment thesis is anchored by management's reaffirmation of over $2 billion in expected 2026 free cash flow, which provides ample firepower for the newly authorized $750 million buyback program and inaugural dividend. With blackouts officially lifted, the imminent execution of share repurchases serves as a strong near-term catalyst for the stock. Operationally, the company has demonstrated rapid execution, particularly the ahead-of-schedule recovery at Wharf and the swift throughput ramp at New Afton. Management's granular handling of complex PPA accounting and precise quantification of diesel cost sensitivities reflects a high degree of operational control and transparency. While the back-half weighted production profile requires flawless execution on the C-Zone ramp-up, the risk/reward is highly favorable. The combination of a de-risked geographic footprint, robust free cash flow generation, and an imminent capital return program makes CDE a compelling buy.

Forward Promise

Overall: 8.3 · bullish

Highly confident management signals imminent capital returns and record cash flow.

Management delivered an exceptionally assured post-acquisition performance, firmly committing to aggressive buybacks and reaffirming massive cash flow guidance while deftly handling complex integration questions.

Red Flags

The purchase price allocation (PPA) from the New Gold acquisition introduces significant non-cash accounting noise that will distort reported earnings and CAS (Cash Applicable to Sales) metrics throughout 2026. The fair value uplift of opening inventory at Rainy River resulted in an $85 million non-cash charge in Q1, inflating gold CAS by $689 per ounce. This 'pointy-headed accounting' will continue through Q2 and Q3 as Coeur draws down an inherited 2 million ton stockpile, potentially confusing investors focused on headline earnings.

Coeur Mining's cost profile faces emerging macroeconomic pressures from rising energy prices. Management noted that a 10% increase in diesel prices would increase total costs by approximately $10 million, equating to a 1% to 2% increase in CAS per unit. While currently hedged and managed, sustained high oil prices could create headwinds for maintaining their guided cost ranges, particularly at diesel-intensive open-pit operations like Rochester and Rainy River.

The C-Zone ramp-up at New Afton carries inherent operational and execution risks as the mine transitions from the depleted B-Zone. While early post-close throughput averaged 13 thousand tons per day, management must nearly double this to reach the targeted 16 thousand tons per day by the end of Q2. Any delays in achieving this target could impact the expected back-half weighted production profile and threaten the full-year copper and gold guidance.

Despite the massive $750 million share repurchase authorization, Coeur has not yet executed any buybacks. The program's success is entirely forward-looking and dependent on sustained free cash flow generation. If operational hiccups occur or metal prices retrace, management may be forced to prioritize balance sheet liquidity over shareholder returns, potentially disappointing the market's expectations for aggressive capital allocation.

The first quarter revealed significant working capital outflows and one-time items totaling over $200 million, including high Mexican tax payments and transaction costs. While management dismissed these as seasonal and non-recurring, the sheer scale of the cash drain highlights the complexity of managing a vastly expanded portfolio. Future quarters will test whether the combined entity can consistently convert EBITDA into free cash flow without similar working capital friction.

Macro Insights

Energy Prices: Rising oil and diesel prices present a cost headwind, though management quantified the impact as relatively minor, noting a 10% increase in diesel equates to only a 1-2% increase in CAS per unit.

Labor Market: Despite general mining sector inflation, Coeur is experiencing normal turnover rates and no labor availability shortfalls, successfully implementing base salary increases in Q1 without disruption.

Geopolitics/Regulation: Canada’s strong support for critical minerals projects is viewed as a tailwind for advancing the high-margin Silvertip silver project in British Columbia.